August Sentinel town halls canceled; work continues on ICBM replacement

Town halls planned on the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile project at Malmstrom have been canceled.

A town hall was scheduled for Aug. 19 in Lewistown and Aug. 20 in Conrad.

An Aug. 28 town hall planned in Nebraska is also canceled.

The Aug. 26 town hall in Minot, N.D. is taking place as scheduled.

The Montana and Nebraska town halls will be rescheduled for a later date.

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The Air Force “determined that additional time and effort is required before proceeding” with the town halls.

The Air Force “understands the value of public engagement on [its] Sentinel weapon system’s replacement of the Minuteman III weapon system,” at the three missile wings, including Malmstrom Air Force Base, “and is committed to obtaining public comments about this project.

An Air Force Global Strike spokeswoman told The Electric in late July that the Air Force was still working to finalize proposed actions following the review and restructuring of the Sentinel program triggered last year by a significant cost overrun.

The Air Force said they may have updates later this fall.

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In January 2024, the Air Force notified Congress that the Sentinel program exceeded its baseline cost projections, causing a critical breach under the federal Nunn-McCurdy Act, which occurs if the program or average unit procurement cost increases by 25 percent or more over the baseline.

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The total program acquisition cost for a “reasonably modified Sentinel program” are now estimated at $140.9 billion, an increase of 81 percent compared to the program’s Milestone B decision in September 2020 when the Air Force awarded a $13.3 billion GBSD engineering and manufacturing development contract to Northrop Grumman.

The Sentinel program cost increase isn’t included included in an April report by the Congressional Budget Office indicating the costs to operate and modernize the U.S. nuclear force through 2034 are projected to rise to $946 billion, 25 percent higher than a 2023 estimate, Reuters reported in April.

Air Force activates Malmstrom unit for ICBM conversion

The Sentinel program hasn’t been halted, but “the Air Force has suspended work on specific parts of the project while the program office determines the best way forward,” which includes restructuring the program and assessing the acquisition strategy from a technical and contractual standpoint, Capt. Kaylee Schanda, a public affairs officer for the Secretary of the Air Force, told The Electric in March.

In May, The Electric met with Maj. Gen. Colin Connor, director of intercontinental ballistic missile modernization, Site Activation Task Force at Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana and Brig. Gen. William Rogers, Air Force program executive officer for intercontinental ballistic missiles and director of the ICBM Systems Directorate at the Air Force Nuclear Weapons Center at Hill Air Force Base in Utah.

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Connor and Rogers told The Electric then that the program is progressing and an updated acquisition strategy is expected late this summer or early fall.

Rogers said that through the Nunn-McCurdy process, the Air Force looked at alternatives or reasonable modifications to launch facilities/silos, system engineering processes and managing risks.

AF Under Secretary visits Malmstrom, talks Sentinel conversion progress [2024]

Through that process, in his office at the ICBM Systems Directorate at the Air Force Nuclear Weapons Center at Hill Air Force Base in Utah, there’s been adjustments to the organization structure, bringing in more senior leadership and experience.

In July, the U.S. Senate Appropriations Committee wrote in a report attached to the military construction appropriations bill that “the committee believes that the Nunn-McCurdy review of the Sentinel program presents an opportunity to identify cost-saving measures and explore options to accelerate deployment of the new missile. As part of that effort, the committee recognizes the potential benefits of a revised schedule that allows for concurrent construction of Sentinel launch facilities across the three missile bases and supports further evaluation of that approach. Therefore, the committee directs the Secretary of the Air Force to submit a report to the committees on appropriations of both houses of Congress within 180 days of enactment of this act that includes (1) the updated schedule for construction of all Sentinel launch facilities, (2) a comparison between the current schedule and the schedule in place prior to the Nunn-McCurdy review that illustrates the extent to which concurrent construction may occur across the three missile bases, and (3) a year-by-year estimate of the construction budget required to execute the concurrent schedule.”

On Aug. 4, Sen. Steve Daines, R-MT, visited Malmstrom to get an update on Sentinel and other projects.

He said that he’s found in his experience that he gets the best updates from the people on the ground rather than those in Washington.

The land-based ICBM leg of the nuclear triad, which is central to U.S. nuclear deterrence strategy, is the most important leg, Daines said.

He said he’s been asking lots of questions about the project.

Asked whether he’d continue to support the Sentinel project is costs kept increasing, Daines said that wasn’t going to keep happening.

He said he was hearing from communities and landowners about the potential impacts of the Sentinel implementation project.

During an July 22 earnings call, Northrop Grumman CEO Kathy Warden said that they’d made progress on restructuring Sentinel and “in close partnership with the Air Force, we reached agreement on a restructure approach, which will lead to reestablishment of the program baseline. The work suspension on most aspects of the command and launch portion of the program was lifted, and we’ve resumed work on launch facility requirements and design. We continue to ramp on the program and make progress through development, testing and risk reduction activities.

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Jenn Rowell