Updated April 22 with the full housing report

The Great Falls Development Alliance commissioned an update to their housing market demand assessment and the findings were released April 17.

Adam Seidman of the Concord Group, GFDA’s consultant, said that they project there’s demand for about 650 new housing units per year over the next decade.

Based on the expected split between owners and renters, the assessment projected that it breaks down to a need for 270 new rental units and 370 new for sale/new ownership units per year over the next decade across income levels.

That’s up from when the Concord consultants were in town in 2021.

Demand for new housing high in Great Falls area; costs slow development [2022]

When they released those findings in early 2022, they projected demand for about 450 new housing units per year in Cascade County over the next 10 years, breaking it down to 190 new rental units and 250 new sale/new ownership units.

[READ: The full 2022 housing market demand assessment]

[READ: The full 2024 housing market demand assessment]

Seidman said that when they were here in 2021, there was a lot of uncertainty and not much housing being built.

In 2021, it was unclear if there was population growth as they were juggling different datasets that differed.

Since then, there’s been strong growth of 2,800 jobs, which was above prior projections. He said some of those are jobs coming back that were lost during COVID, but some is new growth.

Household income growth was “very strong,” Seidman said, with growth of nearly 3.5 percent, putting the Great Falls area above many peer markets. He said that income growth is projected to continue.

More than 500 new apartments came online or are coming online in three projects since they were here in 2021, which he said is proof of the demand they were talking about two years ago.

City approves rezone for 92-unit multifamily housing off Bay Drive

There’s been nearly 11 percent annual home price appreciation, which is great for those who own homes, but tough for those looking to buy, Seidman said.

In the last two years, the area added about 600 households, particularly with those making $70,000 or more, according to Concord’s data, a trend they project to continue.

Some of that movement is locals making more money and some of it’s in-migration, he said.

There have been shifts in the local age demographics and that the percentage of older and younger people are about the same now. It’s still an aging population, but it’s a pretty strong trend to be aware of in the local housing market Seidman said, since more older people are looking to downsize and would move into new townhomes or apartments, freeing up single family houses for people with families or those looking to buy.

City receives 58 applications for growth policy committee

Seidman said employment numbers are hard to predict and he doesn’t put much stock in them, but the area is projected to see about 500 new jobs through 2026, and they did factor in the potential for ripple effects from the Sentinel project, but the housing numbers don’t account for the construction workers since information from the Air Force indicates they’ll largely be housed in mancamps.

The largest employment sector in Great Falls is healthcare, followed by hospitality and government, he said.

Seidman said their data indicates that the Great Falls market has had more growth in recent years and projected for the next five that’s above every market in Montana other than Missoula and is showing strong growth regionally.

Air Force responds to city’s questions on Sentinel

“The gap between incomes here and other comparison markets whether in state or across the region is shrinking,” he said.

There’s a mismatch between income levels and housing supply, he said, causing affordability issues.

That was evident with the Talus Apartments when some in the community thought those rents were too high, but it showed there was demand for newer units with amenities since those apartments filled up.

A major implication of that mismatch, Seidman said, was that those who can afford more aren’t able to find something in their bracket, they’ll buy or rent something cheaper, which is great for them to save money. But, what that does is causing compression lower down the income levels as those who can afford more are taking up housing at lower levels and “these folks now don’t have enough housing,” he said.

City creates new public safety advisory group; still discussing whether to poll on public safety levy

It’s hard to find a house in Great Falls for the typical median income person since they’re taken up by someone with higher incomes, he said.

There’s a lack of housing supply in both the higher end and lower end of price points.

Even if all known units get built over the next decade, Seidman still they’re still forecasting an undersupply of about 1,600 new rental units and 2,400 new for sale units.

If the trends continue, he said he wouldn’t be surprise to see more projected demand in the future.

Nikki Lintz, of Entrust Property Solutions, which is the management group for the new Lofts at Milwaukee Station said they’re already 10 percent leased for units coming open in October.

She said the new common area will feature restaurants with Italian, Asian, burgers and a coffee shop.

Brett Doney, GFDA director, said “we need housing of every type at all price points.”

He said housing demand has increased locally, but so have construction costs.

Doney said GFDA is preparing to launch an angel network to help match local businesses and developers with equity investors.