The U.S. Defense Department released on July 8 the Nunn-McCurdy review of the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile program.

In January, the Air Force notified Congress that the Sentinel program exceeded its baseline cost projections, causing a critical breach under the federal Nunn-McCurdy Act, which occurs if the program or average unit procurement cost increases by 25 percent of more over the baseline.

The total program acquisition cost for a “reasonably modified Sentinel program” are now estimated at $140.9 billion, an increase of 81 percent compared to the program’s Milestone B decision in September 2020 when the Air Force awarded a $13.3 billion GBSD engineering and manufacturing development contract to Northrop Grumman.

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The Air Force is replacing the aging Minuteman III missile system with Sentinel, which is expected to last through 2075.

Components and subsystems of Minuteman have been upgraded since it first became operational in the early 1970s but most of the fundamental infrastructure uses the original equipment, according to the Air Force.

The land-based nuclear deterrent ICBM system includes 400 deployed missiles, 450 silos and more than 600 facilities across nearly 40,000 square miles over six states, three operational wings and a test location.

Under federal law, the program must be terminated unless the under secretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment certifies to Congress that the program meets the criteria to continue.

The Office of the Secretary of Defense conducted a review of the Sentinel program to determine what factors led to the cost growth and whether to certify the continuation of the program, according to DOD.

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William LaPlante, under secretary for acquisition and sustainment, lef the review and certified the Sentinel program met the statutory criteria to continue, which included, according to DOD:

• continuation of the Sentinel program is essential to national security;
• there are no alternatives to the program which will provide acceptable capability to meet the joint requirements at less cost;
• the new estimates of the program acquisition unit cost or procurement unit cost have been determined by the director of cost assessment and program evaluation to be reasonable;
• the program is a higher priority than programs whose funding must be reduced to accommodate the growth in cost of the program; and
• the management structure for the program is adequate to manage and control program acquisition unit cost or procurement unit cost.

LaPlante certified the Sentinel program but rescinded its Milestone B approval, which is the point an acquisition program is authorized to enter the engineering and manufacturing development phase, according to DOD.

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LaPlante also directed the Air Force to restructure the Sentinel program to address the root causes of the breach and ensure an appropriate management structure is in place to control costs in the future.

In June, Sentinel Systems Director Col. Charles Clegg was removed because he “did not follow organizational procedures,” Defense One reported, but his removal wasn’t directly related to the Nunn-McCurdy review.

The review determined that the majority of the cost growth is in Sentinel’s command and launch segment, including “launch facilities, launch centers, and the process, duration, staffing, and facilities to execute the conversion from Minuteman III to Sentinel,” according to DOD.

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“We are fully aware of the costs, but we are also aware of the risks of not modernizing our nuclear forces and not addressing the very real threats we confront,” LaPlante said in a release. “There are reasons for the cost growth, but there are no excuses. We are already working to address the root causes, and more importantly, we believe we are on the right path to defend our nation while protecting the sacred responsibility the American taxpayer has entrusted us with. Sentinel is a truly historic program to modernize the land leg of the Triad, and its scale, scope, and complexity are something we haven’t attempted as a nation in 60 years. Having completed a comprehensive and objective assessment of the program, it is clear that the Sentinel program remains essential to U.S. national security and is the best option to meet the needs of our warfighters.”

DOD now estimates a delay of several years for the Sentinel conversion.

Multiple major projects ongoing at Malmstrom; preparing for Sentinel

At Malmstrom, there will be construction and renovation on base to support Sentinel command, communications, maintenance, training and storage facilities, according to AFGSC.

Off base, the project includes renovating 15 missile alert facilities and 150 launch facilities and constructing 31 communication towers, according to AFGSC.

It will require acquiring easements to install and maintain 1,277 miles of new utility corridors; and install and maintain additional utilities within 1,750 miles of existing utility corridors.

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For Malmstrom, the project includes establishing two workforce hubs, one in Great Falls and one in Lewistown.

Each hub will be 50-60 acres with 2,500 to 3,000 residents during peaks for three to five years, according to AFGSC.

The hubs will have their own dining facility, gym, recreation center and be completely contained within a fenced area. Northrop Grumman, the contractor, will provide security, patrol the area and control access, according to Malmstrom.

The Air Force will also establish construction laydown/staging areas in Augusta, Denton, Judith Gap, Lewistown, Stanford, Vaughn and Winifred.

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Those areas will be about 13 acres in size and in place for three to five years, according to AFGSC.

The Air Force contractor will coordinate with local governments before selecting sites for the temporary facilities and obtain permits as necessary to meet local zoning requirements.